A Bayesian analysis of luminescence dating

Luminescence dating is a widespread dating method used in the fields of archaeology and Quaternary science. As an experimental method it is subject to various uncertainties in the determination of parameters that are used to evaluate age. The need to express these uncertainties fully, combined with the prior archaeological knowledge commonly available, motivates the development of a Bayesian approach to the assessment of age based on luminescence data. The luminescence dating procedure is dissected into its component parts, and each is considered individually before being combined to find the posterior age distribution. We use Bayesian multi-sample calibration to find the palaeodose in the first stage of the model, consider the problem of identifying a plateau in the data, and then use this, along with the annual dose, to estimate age. The true sample age is then modelled, incorporating any prior information available, both for an individual sample and for a collection of samples with related ages.