Predicting Forced Financial Restatement: Evidence from the Malaysian Capital Market

Historical precedent shows that forced financial restatements can have serious implications for the firm affected, investor confidence in financial markets and a country’s economic development more generally. The purpose of this study is to explore factors which affect the likelihood of forced financial restatements. This issue is particularly pertinent in the Malaysian context, as, despite repeated efforts by the government to improve the corporate governance of listed companies, weak regulatory enforcement and the influence of family groups and politicians give rise to continued concerns about financial reporting quality. This study uses the multivariate logit model to analyse firm characteristics which relate to forced financial restatement. The analysis was performed on the Malaysian listed companies from 2002 to 2012. Findings indicate that the likelihood of forced restatements was related to aggressive accounting practices. In addition, the presence of politically-connected shareholders or top executives, the proportion of independent directors on the board, firms’ decreasing level of internal fund and share price volatility were also related to an increased likelihood of forced restatement. More detail tests on the attributes of the different types of restatement show that the likelihood of income-increasing and zero-effect forced restatement event were affected by opportunistic earnings management practices. This contradicts with the results shown for forced income decreasing restatement as they do not imply aggressive accounting, but are more likely to result from mistakes or technical accounting matters, such as change in accounting policy. This study contributes to our understanding by examining a much wider range of financial and non-financial factors as possible determinants of forced restatements. Moreover, compared to prior research, this study explores forced income-decreasing, income-increasing, as well as zero-effect restatements to distinguish between earnings restatements that arise from related to opportunistic behaviour and those linked to accounting errors. Methodologically, this study further contributes by applying the penalised likelihood logit and structural equation modelling approach which are scarcely examined in accounting research, to determine factors affecting the likelihood of forced restatements. It was not possible to develop a valid predictive model for forced financial restatements which is recognised as a limitation to the study. However, the findings in this study do provide some insights into factors which relate to the likelihood of forced restatements, which should be useful for investors, analysts, auditors, and regulators.